Is Mamata Banerjee’s rule in West Bengal unravelling?

medium120332710West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee is fighting battles on multiple fronts. The signs are ominous. The violence in Murshidabad over the new Waqf (Amendment) Act is likely to further polarise West Bengal ahead of the April 2026 assembly election.Next year’s assembly polls will likely be a four-cornered contest between the Trinamool Congress (TMC), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress and the Left. Even if Congress and the Left, bitter rivals in the Kerala assembly election (also due in April 2026), form a tenuous alliance for the West Bengal polls, it could benefit the BJP with Muslim votes drifting towards the Congress and Left.In the 2021 West Bengal assembly election, Trinamool won 48.02% vote share and swept the 292-seat assembly with 215 seats. The BJP increased its vote share from 10.16% and three seats in 2016 to 37.97% and 77 seats in 2021. But of the 77 seats it won in 2021, over a dozen have subsequently been lost to other parties through defections and bypoll defeats.However, the RG Kar Hospital rape and murder case and the Supreme Court verdict on SSC school teachers has alienated Banerjee’s core vote bank. Anti-incumbency is building. The debacle during Banerjee’s Oxford speech and the infighting between Trinamool’s senior leaders have damaged her reputation of running the party with an iron hand.The public mood too is shifting in West Bengal. Banerjee’s bid for a fourth successive term faces challenges. Beset by mounting problems in the state, Banerjee has abandoned trying to carve out a larger national profile. Recognising the shift in mood among traditional middle-class Bengali voters, Banerjee is wooing fence-sitting Hindus as well as trying to keep Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank loyal following the new Waqf law. medium nocaptionhttps://hr.ikan3.com/3sw658_7hzteqpqoj/1kaHYIEb_S23EK?2qxpm=1uf2YGVeB0vgvHKaSIHKwbkl from mishandling law and order in the state, the West Bengal government has made a series of errors that could erode Banerjee’s reputation for competent governance.While the Supreme Court verdict barring over 25,000 school teachers risks losing Banerjee the middle-class vote, a new retrospective law passed recently by the state assembly, which has not been widely reported, could add to the risk. As Arghya Sengupta, research director at Vidhi Centre for Legal Policy, wrote in The Times of India: “In a different incident only a week before this Supreme Court judgment (on school teachers), the West Bengal assembly passed an absurd bill. The state revoked all significant incentives to industries offered in the last few decades. Industries now are also required to repay all benefits they may have received under these incentives.“So if a company that has built a port, received subsidies from the government because port development will lead to employment generation, that company would now have to return those subsidies, while of course carrying on business as usual. Going back on one’s word by retrospectively revoking benefits is fundamentally unfair.“But the assault on the rule of law does not stop there. The law also overrides any judgment of any court or arbitral tribunal under which the industry may have won a case against the West Bengal government. This provision is a throwback to the medieval era when kings could issue firmans overriding anything anyone else may have said or done. In a democracy governed by separation of powers, court rulings cannot be overridden by any legislature. Further, if benefits have already been provided, they can only be revoked in limited circumstances.”Mamata vs RahulBanerjee’s relationship with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi meanwhile continues to be tense. Opposition leaders in the INDIA bloc haven’t met formally since the 2024 Lok Sabha election.Banerjee is 70 years old. Her nephew and political heir Abhishek Banerjee, 37, can be abusive in public speeches, again putting off fence-sitting voters tired of constant scandals and cases plaguing the Trinamool government.Whenever faced with a political crisis, Banerjee has emerged unscathed by using offence as the best form of defence. That strategy backfired during the long drawn-out confrontation with doctors over the RG Kar rape and murder case. Sensing the mood, Banerjee quickly shifted tactics and adopted a conciliatory approach.But on the Supreme Court’s verdict to sack over 25,000 school teachers because of inbuilt corruption in the selection process, Banerjee has reverted to her trademark combative style. medium nocaptionhttps://hr.ikan3.com/3sw658_7hzteqpqoj/1kapbovFz38b62?2qxpm=9nqb5PQJbo5IAIizGdOEir declared after meeting the debarred school teachers: “I will not allow eligible candidates to lose school jobs. I’m ready to even go to jail if anyone wants to penalise me for standing with those who lost school jobs.”A contempt notice has been issued to Banerjee over her remarks against the Supreme Court verdict in the school teachers corruption case. The contempt notice from NGO Aatmdeep accused the chief minister of directly “undermining the authority of the Supreme Court with a wilful, designed and well-thought attack”.Banerjee thrives on challenges like these. But a combination of recent crises has unnerved her. The debacle at Oxford was embarrassing but the fallout manageable. The public squabble between Trinamool leaders will fade from the headlines. The Narada and Sandeshkhali storms have been weathered.But the fallout of the Murshidabad violence and the court-monitored RG Kar and SSC school teachers cases could be electorally damaging for the TMC. Banerjee’s political credibility has been scarred at the cusp of her most important electoral battle in April 2026. The West Bengal assembly polls could set the tone for three other key electoral battles, also due in April 2026: Kerala, Assam and Tamil Nadu.Lead illustration: Uday DebRead more from the author here.