BrahMos & Baraks, J-20s & J-35s

medium nocaption121083820Further details about Operation Sindoor will emerge over the coming weeks and months, about both the targets hit and the losses taken, which are a normal part of combat. But some useful conclusions are already plain. One, the Indian Air Force executed effective offensive and defensive operations against a capable adversary, while aligning with the strategic objective of managing unwanted escalation. Two, future confrontations will be different. Both Pakistan and China will learn from last week’s air battles and adapt. Plus, new capabilities are transforming the character of airpower rapidly.In 1921, Italian military officer Giulio Douhet published his seminal work, The Command of the Air. In it, Douhet offered a sweeping, grandiose vision of airpower as a near apocalyptic tool of warfare that could break the will of an enemy’s population. While much of Douhet’s work has aged poorly, he and many of his contemporaries correctly grasped a crucial aspect of airpower: it allowed militaries to rapidly bypass the frontlines and strike deep within enemy territory. Of course, Douhet had an exaggerated notion of this capability, naively believing that nothing could be done to “interfere with a plane in flight, moving freely in the third dimension”. It was not long before truly potent air defences, backed by sensors like radars, would challenge the freedom of attacking aircraft.These two phenomena – the ability of aircraft and missiles to strike deep inside an adversary’s landmass and the ability of air defences to contest this objective – are enduring themes in the story of aerial warfare. They were also much in evidence during the dramatic three-day confrontation with Pakistan. Going on the offensive | India unambiguously demonstrated its ability to carry out precision strikes across Pakistan and PoJK. * On May 7, IAF jets hit nine sites, targeting multiple terrorist outfits. The strikes were designed to destroy targets while minimising civilian casualties. To achieve this, IAF reportedly used weapons such as the SCALP air-launched cruise missile and the HAMMER standoff munition. Both these French-designed weapons are known for their accuracy and compact explosive payloads. * The following day, India retaliated against nighttime Pak attacks by engaging enemy air defences. This time, IAF’s weapon of choice was apparently the Israeli-made HAROP loitering munition. Some of these sought out an air defence site in Lahore and successfully struck it. * The most potent of the Indian actions were reserved for the end: punitive strikes on 10 Pak air bases on 10 May along with radar sites and other targets. India’s BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles appear to have made their debut in combat during these strikes, proving their worth.You Shall Not Pass | India’s offensive capabilities would have meant little if it had not mounted a successful defence against multiple Pak drone attacks and missile volleys. * On the night of May 7-8, India’s still-nascent Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS) Grid warded off incursions from several drones, while its air defences intercepted surface-to-surface missiles. * The following night, Pakistan attempted incursions with up to 400 small drones at 36 different locations. These incursions were evidently meant to harass India’s air defences and probe them for weaknesses but met with little success.* Pakistan’s most provocative action came on Saturday when it targeted three Indian air bases and fired a Fattah-2 ballistic missile. In an impressive feat of arms, India’s air defences intercepted the Fattah-2 with an Indo-Israeli Barak-8 surface-to-air missile. Other missiles are believed to have been brought down by the Russian-made S-400 system. The Coming Storm | While Indians can be justifiably proud of the conduct of their armed forces during the high-stakes clash with Pakistan, there are formidable challenges ahead. * IAF’s squadron strength is down to 31 from the sanctioned 42. These numbers will be eventually made up through acquisitions, but in the short-term, the air force will need to supplement its strength in innovative ways. This might mean operating squadrons of uncrewed combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) and investing in more standoff munitions. * China is likely to field large numbers of fifth generation aircraft with stealth capabilities such as the J-20 and J-35 in the coming years. Pakistan is also in talks to buy 40 J-35s. Induction of India’s equivalent, AMCA, will take at least a decade. * China and hence Pakistan are likely to have advanced UCAVs of their own in service, providing them greater flexibility and strike options. * Air power also depends on supporting tech, such as space-based surveillance, secure comm systems, and AI. Chinese advances in these fields will heighten India’s challenges. However, there is good reason to believe India can rise to the occasion. Last week’s clashes highlighted not just the effectiveness of India’s multi-layered air defences, but also the degree to which indigenisation has succeeded. Among the surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) active during the hostilities were the Indian-made and designed Akash and the Barak-8 Medium Range SAM, which is the product of a collaboration with Israel. Other systems used during the clashes included the Israeli SkyStriker UAV, which is now locally produced. Unlike China, India enjoys productive partnerships with several countries in the West and in East Asia. It’s time to further leverage these partnerships to strengthen India’s arsenal, with co-development and manufacturing where possible and through outright acquisitions where necessary. Giulio Douhet would recognise little about the complexities of 21st century airpower, but it is up to Indians to build on the lessons from Operation Sindoor and secure their skies. The writer is chair, Advanced Military Technologies Programme, Takshashila Institution